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- GC22C-01: A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage
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NOLA CC
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Matthew Gidden, University of Maryland College Park (First Author, Presenting Author)
Miranda Böttcher, SWP - German Institute for International and Security Affairs, EU/Europe Research Division
Siddharth Joshi, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
John Armitage, IFP Energies nouvelles
Elina Brutschin, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Alina-Berenice Christ, IFP Energies nouvelles
Joeri Rogelj, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Keywan Riahi, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Alex Koberle, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Present deployment of CCS is small; however, the technical potential for carbon storage is assumed to be vast, with industry estimates of ~14,000 Gt CO2. Future scenarios that limit climate change to goals in the Paris Agreement also show large scale up of the use of CCS. We provide a spatially explicit estimation of carbon storage potential in sedimentary basins consistent with the principle of harm prevention across multiple risk dimensions. We find a precautionary planetary limit of between 1500-1600 Gt CO2 of carbon storage. Countries most robust to our risk analysis are present day major fossil fuel extractors. When compared with forward-looking scenarios of climate futures assessed by the IPCC, we find that the majority of scenarios would exceed this limit in the next century. Treating carbon storage as a limited intergenerational resource has deep implications for national policy planning and requires making explicit decisions on priorities for storage use.
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