- A31B-2064: Comparing Machine Learning and Traditional Downscaling Methods for Climate Projections Under Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention
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Board 2064‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
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Nina Grant, Rutgers University (First Author, Presenting Author)
Charles Lee, Rutgers University
Lili Xia, Rutgers University
Zhao Zhang, Rutgers University
Alan Robock, Rutgers University
Scientists need detailed, high-resolution climate data to understand how future changes might affect people and ecosystems. Normally, they create this data using heavy-duty regional climate models (which take a lot of computing power) or simpler statistical techniques (which can miss important details). Machine learning (ML) could be a faster, cheaper alternative because it can combine many kinds of data, capture complicated patterns, and produce fine-scale results—but it usually works best on data similar to what it has already seen.This study tests whether ML can be trusted for a unique challenge: modeling a world with stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI)—a proposed way to cool the planet by reflecting sunlight with tiny particles in the upper atmosphere. We trained an ML model on past climate records and historical simulations, then used it to increase the resolution of coarse climate data for future scenarios, including SAI. We compare the ML results to traditional methods and check how much the choice of method matters. If ML proves reliable, this approach could make high-quality climate data easier to produce and freely available, helping communities and researchers worldwide plan for an uncertain future.
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