Tropical cyclones are among the costliest and deadliest natural disasters globally, causing billions of USD in damage annually. Here we examine atmospheric and oceanic drivers of year-to-year variability in global tropical cyclone landfalls as well as long-term landfall trends from 1990–2024. We find no significant trend in the number of named storms (maximum sustained winds >= 34 kt), hurricanes (>=64 kt), or major (Category 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale; >=96 kt) hurricanes making landfall globally. However, the damage associated with these landfalls has significantly increased, likely related to increases in coastal population and wealth.

We find that El Niño, anomalously warm waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, significantly modulates global tropical cyclone landfalls from year to year. El Niño generates atmospheric and oceanic weather patterns that favor Pacific tropical cyclone landfalls (especially for hurricane-strength tropical cyclones) while suppressing Atlantic landfalls. Over the past 40 years, atmospheric and oceanic conditions have trended more towards La Niña (the opposite of El Niño). This trend is likely suppressing Pacific tropical cyclone landfalls relative to Atlantic tropical cyclone landfalls. This study highlights the importance of understanding El Niño and La Niña to better anticipate future global tropical cyclone losses.