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- NH32A-04: Street-Level Compound Flood Modeling of Philadelphia and the Schuylkill River: Present and Future Risks
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NOLA CC
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Dingyu Xuan, University of Pennsylvania (First Author, Presenting Author)
M. Ani Hsieh, University of Pennsylvania
Douglas Jerolmack, University of Pennsylvania
Hugo Ulloa, University of Pennsylvania
Extreme storms like Hurricane Ida, which drove Schuylkill River in Philadelphia to a record flow nearly 100 times its average, underscore the growing flood risks facing urban catchments with heavier rainfall and rising sea levels. Yet predicting urban flood impacts remains challenging because rainfall runoff, swollen rivers, tides, and built infrastructure interact at different time and length scales, leading to complex and hard-to-track water pathways. To address this, we developed a street-level flood model for Philadelphia that integrates high-resolution elevation data, detailed land‑cover information, and tidal cycles, which captures both river overflow and on-street ponding. Our simulations show that impervious and fragmented surfaces amplify flooding across all neighborhoods, affecting both low- and high-income communities. We also find that inundation extent increases nonlinearly once river discharges exceed the 100‑year threshold. Furthermore, when peak river flows align with high tides, flooded area expands by an additional 2–7% today and could grow by up to 15% by 2100 under projected sea‑level rise. These findings highlight the potential of high-resolution hydrological models to enhance climate resilience in low-lying cities worldwide.
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