- H51T-0606: Machine Learning Generated Streamflow Drought Forecasts for the Conterminous United States (CONUS): Developing and Evaluating an Operational Tool to Enhance Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Streamflow Drought Early Warning for Gaged Locations
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Board 0606‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
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Phillip Goodling, U.S. Geological Survey (First Author, Presenting Author)
John Hammond, U.S. Geological Survey
Jeremy Diaz, U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area
Hayley Corson-Dosch, U.S. Geological Survey
Aaron Heldmyer, USGS Geological Survey
Scott Hamshaw, U.S. Geological Survey
Ryan McShane, USGS Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center
Jesse Ross, US Geological Survey
Roy Sando, USGS Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center
Caelan Simeone, U.S. Geological Survey
Leah Staub, U.S. Geological Survey
William Watkins, USGS Integrated Information Dissemination Division
Michael Wieczorek, U.S. Geological Survey
Kendall Wnuk, U.S. Geological Survey
Jacob Zwart, USGS Integrated Information Dissemination Division, Data Science Branch
Advance warning of streamflow drought would enable improved water resource management. We used two artificial intelligence models and two reference models to forecast when streams experience drought at more than 3,000 streamgages within the contiguous United States. We forecast up to 13 weeks ahead, though we generally found 4 weeks to be the limit of performance for predicting the occurrence of severe droughts. Our best-performing model was a long-term short-term memory neural network architecture. It was able to correctly forecast the onset of drought 18% of the time, which, while low, exceeded the reference models. Our forecasts were also evaluated for the properties of the uncertainty estimates; we found the best-performing model to also have the most informative uncertainty estimates. This work highlights the challenges and opportunities to further advance hydrological drought forecasting and supports an experimental operational streamflow drought assessment and forecast tool.
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