- EP11A-02: Flooded Economies: Evaluating the Flood and Financial Risks of Inland Subsidence in the Spring Creek Watershed, Southeast Texas, USA
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NOLA CC
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Ashley Greuter, Harris-Galveston Subsidence District (First Author, Presenting Author)
Mohamed Bagha, Michael Baker International
Manoj Kc, Michael Baker International
Michael Turco, Harris-Galveston Subsidence District
Chris Canonico, Ardurra Group
Alan Petrov, Johnson Petrov LLP
In the Texas Gulf Coast region, abundant groundwater use can cause aquifer compaction, leading to land surface subsidence. With projected population growth and increased water demand, evaluating future subsidence impacts is crucial for effective water resource planning. This study presents a robust, scenario-based framework for evaluating future flood hazards and quantifying economic losses associated with inland subsidence in the Spring Creek Watershed, located in southeast Texas. Subsidence projections were used to create a new pluvial 2D HEC-RAS model that quantified the flood risk of future subsidence projected to 2070 for the entire watershed. Hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) modeling efforts included the calibration of a baseline scenario and evaluation of two subsidence scenarios using two storm events to calculate flooding impacts. The subsidence scenarios assessed conditions for decreased land surface elevation only as well as subsidence with future growth, such as increased impervious cover and structures. These scenarios were analyzed for a 100-year flood event and 10-year flood event. Economic losses for the flooding impacts were estimated for both direct and indirect losses. The study revealed that more impacts occurred in areas with greater subsidence and higher projected population growth, with economic impacts valued at over half a billion dollars.
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