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- GC24B-03: Identifying the Timing of Regional Summertime Minimum Temperature Threshold Crossings and the Potential Subsequent Climate Evolutions
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NOLA CC
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Marybeth Arcodia, University of Miami (First Author, Presenting Author)
Elizabeth Barnes, Boston University
There is growing urgency to understand when critical temperature thresholds will be crossed in specific regions and the potential climate states following the crossing. This study predicts when North American regions will exceed and remain above certain summertime minimum temperature thresholds. Using convolutional neural networks, we predict, with uncertainty, when these temperature thresholds will be crossed. The networks are trained on data from multiple climate simulations and emissions scenarios and fine-tuned using observations to improve their accuracy for the real world. By constraining the timing of these threshold crossings, the study explores what the climate could look like in the years following the crossing. We focus on specific model simulations— storylines— that reach the threshold at or near the predicted time. This reveals how the climate could evolve in physically-viable ways after the thresholds are crossed. The study further examines how these evolutions could affect cattle, which are vulnerable to increasing minimum summertime temperatures, and are an important part of the region’s agriculture. We also evaluate if or when future minimum surface temperatures will exceed historical average temperatures. Understanding when and how heat stress could evolve can help guide future planning and adaptation strategies, particularly in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture.
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