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- A12C-05: Unified Forecast System Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Easterly Waves in the East Pacific During Boreal Summer
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NOLA CC
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Eric Maloney, Colorado State University (First Author, Presenting Author)
Yu-Cian Tsai, Colorado State University
This study examines how well the Unified Forecast System (UFS) predicts the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its remote effects on the east Pacific (EP) during boreal summer. The MJO is an important disturbance that moves eastward across the Tropics and influences tropical cyclone (TC) activity. While the UFS can reproduce some of the MJO’s characteristics, it struggles to accurately predict speed and magnitude of the MJO after about 15 days. This results in slow-moving MJOs that decay too slowly with delayed impacts on the EP. Therefore, the model overestimates MJO influence on EP environmental conditions after 15 days, leading to low skill in predicting TC activity. By analyzing how energy moves and changes within the atmosphere during MJO events, the study finds that the UFS model does not correctly simulate two key processes: it underestimates how quickly moist static energy is redistributed by vertical motion, and it overestimates the warming effects from radiative heat trapped by clouds. These biases explain why the simulated MJO moves eastward and weakens more slowly than observed. Fixing these problems is crucial for improving forecast accuracy in the UFS, especially for subseasonal TC prediction, helping us better prepare for extreme weather events in the EP.
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