Tropical cyclones are modulated by the sea surface temperature, especially in the Pacific Ocean. The change in sea surface temperature over the coming decades remains uncertain, due to a combination of human-induced warming and natural climate variability.

To explore future tropical cyclone activity, we ran a set of global climate model simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) at a horizontal resolution of ~25 km from 2021 to 2050, with one historical simulation from 1961 to 2020 as a baseline for comparison. Each simulation was forced by a different “storyline” of sea surface temperature—a combination of one out of two possible long-term warming patterns with either the positive or negative phase of the dominant Pacific climate variability known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO).

We will compare the frequency, location, and intensity of tropical cyclones across these storylines, from global and basin-specific perspectives. The large-scale atmospheric conditions related to the formation of tropical cyclones will also be examined. The results can indicate how different, but plausible, sea surface temperature patterns could shape tropical cyclone activity in the near future.