Author(s): William Collins, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (First Author, Presenting Author) Mark Risser, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Ankur Mahesh, University of California Berkeley Joshua North, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Machine learning (ML) offers a faster and more efficient approach to simulating spatio-temporal dynamics in weather forecasting. ML weather emulators can generate large forecast ensembles, providing a unique opportunity for studying low-likelihood, high-impact events like heatwaves. This study demonstrates the added value of a huge ML ensemble in resolving extreme heatwave statistics for the summer of 2023. The ensemble provides more robust sampling, better predictions, and quantifies worst-case scenarios of compound risk from extreme heatwaves.