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  • Presentation | H13B: Advancements in Watershed Modeling to Support Water Management III Oral
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  • H13B-01: Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Factors of Riverine Nutrient Export at HUC12 Scale in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin
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  • Location Icon220-222
    NOLA CC
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Author(s):
Qianyu Zhao, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (First Author, Presenting Author)
Bin Peng, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Zewei Ma, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Mengqi Jia, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Gregory McIsaac, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Dale Robertson, USGS Upper Midwest Water Science Center
Ming Pan, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego
Kaiyu Guan, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign


Nutrient pollution from nitrogen and phosphorus is a major cause of water quality problems in rivers and downstream ecosystems like the Gulf. To better understand how this pollution has changed over time and where it comes from, we developed a high-resolution model to track nutrient export across small catchments in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin from 1980 to 2020. We used data from USGS stations and applied statistical techniques to separate the effects of human activities from natural changes in hydrology.


Our results show that local nutrient export has increased in nearly all parts of the basin over the past 40 years. Agricultural and urban sources both contributed to these increases. For nitrogen, farming remains the largest source, while urban sources of phosphorus are now the most dominant. Changes in hydrology also played a major role, explaining over half of the observed increases.


This study helps pinpoint where and why nutrient pollution is getting worse. These insights can support more targeted, locally appropriate strategies for reducing nutrient runoff and improving water quality in the Mississippi River and beyond.




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