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  • Presentation | NH21C: Extreme Hazards Across the Earth: Observations, Modeling, Outlooks, Mitigation, and Restoration I Poster
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  • NH21C-0438: Month-Ahead Fire Weather Index Forecasts with Deep Learning for Global Fire Risk Preparedness
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  • Board 0438‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)
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Author(s):
Sihyun Lee, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (First Author, Presenting Author)
Yoojin Kang, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology
Dongjin Cho, Seoul National University
Jungho Im, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology


Wildfires are escalating globally, posing significant challenges to ecosystems and communities. Fire Weather Index (FWI) metrics quantify fire danger conditions. While short-range forecasts provide immediate guidance, extending predictions to 4 weeks could enhance proactive fire management. However, physically-based numerical forecast skill deteriorates beyond ten days. We introduce a deep learning framework that extends deterministic FWI predictions to 31 days by combining data-driven pattern recognition with physically-informed meteorological forecasts. Our model generates more accurate daily 1° resolution FWI predictions. Model training follows a two-phase scheme: pretraining on 16-year reanalysis data to learn global fire-weather dynamics, then fine-tuning on operational forecasts. Compared to numerical baselines, our model reduces global RMSE by ~13% in week 1, maintaining ~6% improvement through day 31, with greatest improvements in grassland and closed forest ecosystems.



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