- A43M-06: Amplifying Variability of the Southern Annular Mode in the Past and Future
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NOLA CC
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Ding Ma, Duke Kunshan University (First Author, Presenting Author)
Ji Nie, Peking University
Yuandong Zhang, Duke Kunshan University
The Southern Annular Mode is a major driver of weather variability across the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. While it has been documented that the pattern is gradually shifting due to climate change, it is unclear how its natural swings respond to climate change. Wilder swings could mean more frequent and severe weather events, a critical concern for communities across the region.We analyzed eighty years of historical weather records and used a hierarchy of computer models to understand the cause of these swings and project future changes. We found that the variability of this pattern has already increased significantly, contributing to more intense weather, such as a 40% increase in extreme rainfall during certain events. Our work shows this amplification is driven by the growing temperature difference between the tropics and Antarctica. This trend is projected to continue, suggesting the Southern Hemisphere will likely face more frequent and intense weather extremes in a warming world.
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