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  • Presentation | GC43F: Advances in Emulating Earth System Models I Poster
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  • GC43F-0866: MESMER-RCM: A Probabilistic Climate Emulator for Regional Warming Projections
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  • Board 0866‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)
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Author(s):
Hao Pan, ETH Zurich (First Author, Presenting Author)
Lukas Gudmundsson, ETH Zurich
Mathias Hauser, ETH Zurich
Jonas Schwaab, ETH Zurich
Yann Quilcaille, ETH Zurich
Sonia Seneviratne, ETH Zurich


Regional climate models (RCMs) provide critical detailed information about the local climate. However, running RCM simulations requires powerful computers and is computationally expensive. We present a probabilistic RCM emulator. The model is called MESMER-RCM. It is a data-driven statistical model, designed to replicate RCM simulations with minimal computational resources. MESMER-RCM can generate large ensembles of synthetic, yet physically plausible fine-scale 2-meter temperature projections spanning multiple decades. These projections are very similar to those of real RCMs and effectively capture the internal variability implied by the RCM.



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