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  • Presentation | NG21B: Applied Math Perspectives on Multiscale Complexity: Theory, Computation, and Extreme Events in Geophysical and Urban Systems II Poster
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  • NG21B-0391: Assimilative Causal Inference
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  • Board 0391‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)
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Author(s):
Nan Chen, University of Wisconsin Madison (First Author, Presenting Author)
Marios Andreou, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Erik Bollt, Clarkson University


Causal inference is fundamental across scientific disciplines, yet existing methods struggle to capture instantaneous, time-evolving causal relationships in complex, high-dimensional systems. In this paper, assimilative causal inference (ACI) is developed, which is a paradigm-shifting framework that leverages Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes backward from observed effects. ACI solves the inverse problem rather than quantifying forward influence. It uniquely identifies dynamic causal interactions without requiring observations of candidate causes, accommodates short datasets, and scales efficiently to high dimensions. Crucially, it provides online tracking of causal roles, which may reverse intermittently, and facilitates a mathematically rigorous criterion for the causal influence range, revealing how far effects propagate. ACI opens new avenues for studying complex systems, where transient causal structures are critical.



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