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- A41A-03: Compound Drivers of Rising Ozone Pollution Extremes in the North China Plain (2013–2023): Aerosol Decline, Hot Droughts, Afforestation-Driven BVOCs, and Reduced Vegetation Uptake
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NOLA CC
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Meiyun Lin, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (First Author, Presenting Author)
Larry Horowitz, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Yuanyu Xie, Princeton University
Isabelle De Smedt, Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
Over the past decade, China has made major progress in reducing particulate air pollution, but surface ozone pollution has unexpectedly worsened, particularly in the North China Plain. This study explores the causes. We find that multiple interacting factors—declining aerosols, extreme heat and drought, widespread afforestation, and changes in vegetation uptake—are jointly driving more frequent and intense ozone events. As aerosols decline, more sunlight reaches the surface and fewer hydroperoxy radicals are removed on aerosol surfaces, both of which accelerate ozone photochemical production. Afforestation boosts emissions of natural ozone-forming gases like isoprene, especially during heatwaves, while drought-stressed vegetation becomes less effective at removing ozone from the air. These combined effects can add over 10 ppbv of ozone on high-pollution days, pushing levels well beyond health-based standards. Reducing these extremes will require coordinated cuts of over 50% in anthropogenic emissions of both nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. Our findings underscore the complex links between air quality and climate policies: balancing pollution control with climate adaptation will require integrated strategies that manage ozone while maintaining the environmental and climate benefits of greening initiatives.
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