Author(s): Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Center for Climate Systems Research (First Author, Presenting Author) Emile Esmaili, Columbia University in the City of New York Andrew Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS Matteo Zampieri, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thang Luong, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Md Saquib Saharwardi, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Ibrahim Hoteit, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
This study assessed drought forecasts in the Arabian Peninsula using combined rainfall data and NMME model outputs from 1991–2020. Forecasts were most accurate 1–2 months ahead, especially in winter and during El Niño events. Accuracy dropped after three months. Results show NMME models can support early drought warnings and water management, especially during ENSO-active periods.
