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- NH44A-04: Modeling Philippine Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard in Present and Future Climates
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NOLA CC
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Aidan Ocampo, Columbia University (First Author, Presenting Author)
Suzana Camargo, Columbia University
Adam Sobel, Columbia University
The Philippines is amongst the most vulnerable countries to tropical cyclones (TCs). We use a tropical cyclone hazard model, the Columbia HAZard model (CHAZ), to generate physically-realistic storms to extend the historic record and consider how climate change impacts the characteristics of tropical cyclones in the Philippines. The hazard model is run with environmental conditions from both ERA5 reanalysis (historical conditions) and CMIP6 models (climate change conditions) to study TC hazard in present and future climates. Philippines TC risk assessment is performed using satellite-inferred exposed asset value and regionally-calibrated vulnerability curves. Preliminary results show increasing TC intensity in the 3 future scenarios for climate change hazard simulations. However, projected asset losses remain relatively unchanged pointing to necessary improvements in exposure and vulnerability layers which are now underway.
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