Small-scale farmers across Zambia are seeing increased challenges due to changes in climate, especially shifts in rainfall timing and intensity along with rising temperatures during the growing season. To better understand how these changes affect crop yield, we gathered decades of government crop forecast data and used it to build models that can predict future crop yields at the district level. We also used historical climate data that integrates data from weather stations and satellites to help us capture the influence of weather patterns—like dry spells during key stages of a plant's lifecycle—that farmers say are especially harmful to their crops. By combining these tools, we were able to estimate how future climate conditions might affect crop production in different parts of the country. Our results also helped show how past government programs have had very different effects depending on the region. This kind of research can support better planning and policies to help farmers adapt to a changing climate.