- GC24D-06: Evaluating Subnational Distribution of Future Air Pollution and Health Under Global Climate Mitigation Pathways
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NOLA CC
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Keyan Guo, Princeton University (First Author, Presenting Author)
Wei Peng, Princeton University
Jinyu Shiwang, Princeton University
Mark Budolfson, University of Texas Austin
Noah Scovronick, Emory University
Reducing carbon dioxide emissions not only helps slow climate change, but also improves air quality and public health. However, we don’t fully understand how these health benefits will be shared across different countries and regions. In this study, we use two models together to explore how air pollution and health outcomes might change in the future under different climate policies. We compare a future without any climate action to two alternatives that reduce emissions enough to limit global warming to 2°C—one that focuses on minimizing global costs, and one that requires higher-income countries to take more responsibility. We estimate air pollution and health effects around the world at a 2° x 2.5° resolution and examine how climate policies affect different populations. We find that nearly every populated area will benefit from cleaner air, but wealthier regions gain more when they take stronger action. Inside each country, the way governments choose to cut emissions—such as which fuels to use—can strongly affect who benefits. Overall, people living in the poorest areas, especially in parts of Africa and South Asia, may receive fewer health benefits under either mitigation scenario.
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