- GC11B-01: Changes in modes of variability important for Antarctic atmospheric rivers and precipitation extremes
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NOLA CC
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Christine Shields, National Center for Atmospheric Research (First Author, Presenting Author)
Michelle Maclennan, NERC British Antarctic Survey
Nan Rosenbloom, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Jean-Christophe Golaz, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Antarctic weather is often dictated by the Southern Hemisphere storm track and the global and hemispheric weather patterns that interact with this region. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow, weather features that carry moisture and heat from lower latitudes to higher latitudes producing significant amounts of precipitation. Using Earth System models and observational products, we diagnose typical weather patterns and sequences that produce ARs impacting Antarctica. We can use these typical patterns and sequences to understand when and where extreme precipitation associated with ARs is most likely to occur. We also evaluate different climate scenarios and show that for warmer climates, the most dominant weather pattern occurring today potentially decreases in significance in the coming decades, in particular for West Antarctica.
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