- SH43E-2625: Intelligent and Interpretable Modeling of Solar EUV Irradiance: Towards Physics-Aware Space Weather Forecasting
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Board 2625‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
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Shah Bahauddin, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (First Author, Presenting Author)
Andrés Muñoz-Jaramillo, Southwest Research Institute Boulder
Phillip Chamberlin, University of Colorado
Courtney Peck, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics
Sujit Roy, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center
Dinesha Vasanta Hegde, Department of Space Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville
Johannes Schmude, IBM Research
Amy Lin, University of Alabama in Huntsville
Vishal Gaur, University of Alabama in Huntsville
Rohit Lal, University of Alabama in Huntsville
Marcus Freitag, IBM Research
Rahul Ramachandran, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center
The Sun constantly emits energy in the form of light, including extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, which is primarily produced in its multi-million-degree outer atmosphere. This EUV radiation affects Earth’s space environment by increasing drag on satellites, interfering with radio signals, and reducing the accuracy of GPS systems. However, direct measurements of this radiation are limited and often unavailable during fast, short-lived events like solar flares or eruptions.This study introduces two new models that use artificial intelligence to reconstruct solar EUV radiation accurately, efficiently, and in a way that is interpretable by humans. One model, called HelioFM, learns from satellite images of the Sun to understand how EUV radiation varies across space and time. The other model, Spectral-KAN, takes a simpler approach based on known solar spectral patterns to make fast and interpretable predictions.
By combining these two models, scientists can better model both past solar activity and current solar behavior. Trained on over a decade of solar data, including major solar storms, these models outperform traditional methods. This work moves us closer to real-time space weather forecasting that can help safeguard technology and infrastructure on Earth and in near-Earth space.
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