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- [ONLINE] SA23D-VR8753: Predicting Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Using TEC measurements from C/NOFS-CERTO Observations Over Southeast Asia
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Suman Das, Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Rostock (First Author, Presenting Author)
Claudia Stolle, Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Rostock
Yosuke Yamazaki, Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Rostock
Tatsuhiro Yokoyama, Kyoto University
Mamoru Yamamoto, Kyoto University
Septi Perwitasari, NICT National Institute of Information and Communications Technology
Equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) are disturbances in the ionosphere that can disrupt satellite communication and navigation signals. Predicting when and where these bubbles will form is difficult because of their complex behavior. However, recent research shows that small-scale upward movements in the lower ionosphere, called upwellings, can help trigger EPBs. In this study, we used data from a satellite instrument (CERTO on C/NOFS) and a ground-based receiver in Phuket, Thailand, to detect early signs of these upwellings in the evening hours. We then checked whether these signs could help predict EPB events detected by a radar in Kototabang, Indonesia. The data covered 445 days from 2012 to 2014 under various space weather conditions. We found that when the total electron content (TEC) changed by more than 5.65%, it was a good indicator that an EPB would occur soon—typically 18 to 86 minutes later. This method predicted EPBs with about 96% accuracy. Based on these results, we suggest a new satellite mission using several low-orbit satellites and a network of ground receivers to provide real-time EPB forecasts across wide areas, improving the reliability of satellite-based systems.
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