- A31E-2115: Probabilistic Assessment of Global Drought Risk Transitions under Climate Change: Insights from CMIP6 Models and Risk Ratio Methodology
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Board 2115‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
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Akinwale T. Ogunrinde, Northwest Institute of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences (First Author, Presenting Author)
Xian Xue, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources
Sabab Shah, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources
This study investigates how climate change affects drought risks globally, using advanced climate models (CMIP6) and a new method called Risk Ratio to predict future drought patterns. We analyzed drought characteristics like duration, frequency, and severity from 1951 to 2100, comparing historical data with future projections under moderate and high-emission scenarios. The results show that droughts are becoming more severe and frequent worldwide, especially in high-emission futures, with the Mediterranean region facing the highest risk, potentially doubling in drought severity by 2100. Rising temperatures increase evaporation, worsening drought impacts, particularly in dry areas. While the models perform well in many regions, they struggle in places like the Amazon, underestimating extreme droughts. Our findings highlight the urgent need for better climate models and targeted strategies, like improved water management, to address growing drought risks and protect water resources, agriculture, and communities.
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