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  • Presentation | S13C: Integrating Physical, Statistical, and AI-Enhanced Methods in Seismic Hazard: Toward Real-Time Forecasting of Natural and Induced Earthquakes I Poster
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  • [ONLINE] S13C-VR8872: PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS OF NORTHEAST INDIA USING CLUSTERED SEISMICITY AND FAULT-BASED SOURCE MODELS
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Author(s):
Tapan Jyoti Sharma, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati (First Author, Presenting Author)
Archana Nair, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati
Bijay kumar Nayak, IIT Guwahati


In our study, we conducted a comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for Northeast India, which is one of the world's most seismically active regions. Our goal was to create a refined hazard model that improves upon the broad national zonation map.


To accomplish this, we first developed a homogenized and declustered earthquake catalog with a Magnitude of Completeness of 4.0. Using a novel hybrid method that combined data-driven clustering with the known tectonic framework, we delineated four primary seismic source zones. We then used a logic tree with region-specific ground motion models to account for scientific uncertainties.


In the study, it is found that the highest hazard is along the Indo-Burma ranges and the Kopili Fault Zone. Here, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values exceed 0.35g for a 475-year return period. Critically for Guwahati, our analysis reveals that the primary threat comes from moderate earthquakes on nearby sources like the Kopili Fault rather than distant great earthquakes.




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