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- A13F-1760: Intensification of Summer Mesoscale Convective Systems in East China under extreme warming climate
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Board 1760‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
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Yutong Lu, Nanjing University (First Author, Presenting Author)
John Marsham, University of Leeds
Douglas Parker, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
Juan Fang, Nanjing University
Jianping Tang, Nanjing University
This study investigates how large storm systems, known as Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs), may change under future warming over eastern China. MCSs often produce intense rainfall and flooding, making their response to climate change critical for public safety. Using high-resolution climate simulations and a method that adds projected warming to historical weather patterns, we explored how these storms could behave under a high-emission scenario.Our results show that while MCSs may occur less frequently in some areas, such as northeastern and southeastern China, they are likely to last longer, produce heavier rainfall, and cover larger areas when they do form. This is mainly due to higher atmospheric moisture and energy levels. However, weaker background winds and stronger atmospheric caps may delay storm development, making MCSs more intense once triggered.
Extreme rainfall from MCSs is projected to increase faster than expected with rising temperatures, especially in drier regions. MCSs are also likely to shift structurally toward more intense, convection-dominated systems.
These changes suggest a higher risk of flash floods and severe rainfall events in the future. Better understanding of MCS behavior under climate change can support early warning systems and help communities prepare for future climate impacts.
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