We looked at how future U.S. LNG exports could play out under 100 different “what‑if” worlds, each defined by different global trends (like population growth, climate goals, and technology costs) and different U.S. policy choices (like how open trade is and whether there are emissions limits or technology subsidies).

Key takeaways:

No single driver rules the future. It’s the mix of world conditions and U.S. rules working together that really matters.

Biggest global influence: How strict the world’s climate targets are—tougher goals mean more uncertainty in U.S. exports.

Biggest domestic influence: How open the U.S. is to trade—if trade is restricted, even good world conditions can’t boost exports.

Interaction matters: Favorable global trends (like low costs or strong mitigation) only turn into high U.S. exports when domestic trade policies and support are in place.

Why it matters: By showing which factors matter most—and how they combine—this work points policymakers to the highest‑leverage levers (for example, aligning trade rules with climate goals) to manage U.S. LNG’s role in a low‑carbon future.