Cyprus, an island-country in the eastern Mediterranean, is expected to face serious effects from climate change. Temperatures are rising, and rainfall is decreasing—leading to more frequent and intense droughts. This puts pressure on ecosystems and could cause forests to die and land to become desert-like. Such changes also affect how water moves through the environment, making it harder to manage water resources. This is especially concerning for Cyprus, which is already the most water-scarce country in the European Union.

To better understand and prepare for these changes, we used a detailed computational ecohydrological model (T&C) to simulate the coupled water and ecosystem dynamics. This model includes important human activities like farming and management of water reservoirs. We used a mix of data (from ground measurements, satellites, and other sources) to run the model for current conditions. Then, we used future climate projections to see what might happen under climate change.

These simulations help us understand how Cyprus’s ecosystems and water resources might respond in the future and can support smarter planning and decision-making to adapt to a changing climate.