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  • Presentation | GC13E: Advances in Understanding and Predicting High-Latitude Earth Systems Changes and Their Associated Global Impacts II Poster
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  • GC13E-0706: Initial Condition Sensitivity of Polar Low Intensity and Location Determined using Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis
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  • Board 0706‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)
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Author(s):
Kevin Boyd, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign (First Author, Presenting Author)
Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois
James Doyle, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory


Polar lows are intense high-latitude cyclones with small spatial scales (∼300 km) and lifetimes on the order of a day. They intensify rapidly and produce hazardous weather conditions that threaten communities and operations in the Arctic, which motivates skillful polar low forecasts. Accurate initial conditions for polar low forecasting are challenging due to sparse observations in the Arctic. In this study, we investigate the relationship between initial condition uncertainty and short-term forecasts of polar low intensity and location. We find strong relationships between the representation of key environmental conditions and forecasts of polar low intensity and location, which may be used to better assess uncertainty in the real-time forecasting of polar lows.



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