Author(s): Seth McGinnis, National Center for Atmospheric Research (First Author, Presenting Author) Lee Kessenich, National Center for Atmospheric Research Alison Cullen, University of Washington Rachel McCrary, National Center for Atmospheric Research Erin Belval, US Forest Service
Wildfire management in the Western US depends on resource-sharing between regions, which is disrupted when there are many simultaneous wildfires in multiple regions at the same time. Recently, this disruption has been increasing, and is projected to continue doing so.
We develop statistical models that predict the number of simultaneous fires based on the weather, and conditions of resource strain based on the number of fires. We then apply those models to output from simulations of future weather conditions to project the impacts on resource-sharing.
