Author(s): Derek Mallia, University of Utah (First Author, Presenting Author) Heather Holmes, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Utah Taylor Wilmot, University of Utah David Peterson, US Naval Research Laboratory James Campbell, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory Edward Hyer, Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory
Large wildfires can sometimes trigger thunderstorms known as pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, which can impact firefighter safety and expand the coverage of smoke. To help forecast these events, we developed a modeling system that combines satellite fire data, plume rise simulations, and weather forecasts. By running 100 forecasts per fire, the modeling framework can estimate the likelihood of a pyroCb forming. During the 2025 wildfire season, this modeling framework successfully predicted 65% of pyroCbs.
