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  • Presentation | A24D: Identifying, Understanding, and Resolving Earth System Model Biases I Oral
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  • A24D-03: Excessive Downward Shortwave Radiation in the HRRR and RAP Weather Models and Testing Strategies for Improvements
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Author(s):
Stan Benjamin, NOAA Boulder (First Author, Presenting Author)
Eric James, NOAA Global Systems Laboratory
David Turner, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Kelly Balmes, University of Colorado
Kathleen Lantz, NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory
Anders Jensen, NOAA/GSL
JOHN Augustine, NOAA


Weather forecasts of all durations are dependent on accurate forecasts of clouds. Even the well-known 3-km NOAA HRRR model was found to have errors in clouds resulting in forecasts of too warm temperatures and too little precipitation. In our study including model experiments in three different seasons, we found two key ideas that can improve future storm forecasts: better use of observations to start the weather models to avoid initial dryness and to brighten model cloud forecasts by assuming that cloud droplets are slightly smaller than previously prescribed. These changes can improve NOAA forecasts for aviation, energy, and severe weather in successors to the current HRRR weather model. Moreover, we show that comparisons with surface radiation measurements are essential for identifying causes for systematic biases in NWP models.



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