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- A21L-2164: Investigating Low Likelihood, High Impact Extratropical Cyclone Characteristics in a Warming Climate
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Board 2164‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
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Diana Apoznanski, Rutgers University New Brunswick (First Author, Presenting Author)
Anthony Broccoli, Rutgers University New Brunswick
Robert Kopp, Rutgers University New Brunswick
Nor’easters, formally called extratropical cyclones (ETCs), are powerful storms that affect the Northeast United States. When they intensify, they can cause major impacts such as flooding, property damage, and loss of life. While common in this region, ETCs are less studied than hurricanes, making it important to better understand their patterns to prepare communities. We use meteorology data from the ERA5 reanalysis and CMIP6 global climate models to explore how the strongest ETCs have changed over time due to global warming. We track these storms with a tool called TempestExtremes and analyze their meteorological features, including sea level pressure, wind speed, and precipitation. We also study the large-scale weather patterns that lead to the most intense storms and use statistical methods to estimate how often dangerous storm conditions occur. By comparing past and present climate periods, we assess how the likelihood and strength of these storms have shifted. Our findings help improve understanding of ETC risks and provide valuable information for climate adaptation and building resilience in communities affected by these storms.
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