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- B43I-2043: Stomatal Optimization Theory Overestimates Leaf Cooling in Populus fremontii Saplings During Drought and Episodic Heatwave Stress
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Board 2043‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
Author(s):Generic 'disconnected' Message
Colin Pannikkat, Oregon State University (First Author, Presenting Author)
Bradley Posch, Desert Botanical Garden
Dan Koepke, Desert Botanical Garden
Susan Bush, Desert Botanical Garden
Alexandra Schuessler, Desert Botanical Garden
Jessica Guo, Harvey Mudd College
Kelly Kerr, University of California Santa Barbara
Kevin Hultine, Desert Botanical Garden
German Vargas G., Oregon State University
Stomata are tiny pores on plant leaves that regulate gas exchange, bringing in carbon dioxide for growth while allowing water to evaporate, which risks internal damage. This exchange is seen as an optimization problem, where plants attempt to trade off between the benefit and the risk of opening their stomata. Scientists use this ‘stomatal optimization’ framework in models to predict how plants respond to environmental stress, such as droughts or heatwaves. Modeling these responses is increasingly critical as extreme weather events become more frequent. We studied tree saplings in a garden experiment during a heatwave exceeding 48 °C with an induced drought. We tested a stomatal optimization model’s ability to predict sapling responses under simultaneous heat and drought conditions. After fitting the model to measured data, we found it consistently overestimated leaf cooling and recovery, even when tuned to match pre-drought leaf temperature. Our findings show that an existing stomatal optimization model cannot reliably predict tree responses to simultaneous extreme heat and drought events. This limitation reduces the ability to forecast climate change impacts on forests, and improving this model will be critical for better understanding and protecting forests in an era of intensifying extreme weather.
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