Author(s): Liyin He, Duke University (First Author, Presenting Author) Chenchen Ren, Carnegie Science Lorenzo Rosa, Carnegie Science
Wheat is a staple food, supplying about 20% of global dietary calories. As climate change threatens yields in traditional wheat-growing regions, especially at low latitudes, ensuring future production is vital for global food security. This study examines how abandoned croplands across North America, Europe, and Asia can be strategically reclaimed to grow winter wheat under a warmer climate. Using machine learning and climate projections, we identify high-potential regions where winter wheat can thrive, producing up to 110 million tons annually. With spatial targeting, countries like China, Germany, and France could realize 70% of this potential using only half the land. These results offer a practical, data-driven strategy for adapting agriculture to climate change while minimizing land-use pressures.