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  • Presentation | GC13E: Advances in Understanding and Predicting High-Latitude Earth Systems Changes and Their Associated Global Impacts II Poster
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  • GC13E-0703: Evolution of Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events Under Anthropogenic Climate Forcings in CMIP6 Models
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  • Board 0703‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)
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Author(s):
Chun Yin Chan, University of Exeter (First Author, Presenting Author)
Mark England, University of California, Irvine
James Screen, University of Exeter
Tom Bracegirdle, British Antarctic Survey
Ed Blockley, Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change
Caroline Holmes, NERC British Antarctic Survey


In 2016, Antarctic sea ice dropped sharply from a record high to a then record low, but the reasons behind it are still uncertain. Using pre-industrial climate model runs from the CMIP6 archive, which simulate the climate system without human influences, we investigate whether natural variability alone could explain this event and what key mechanisms might be involved, such as ocean temperatures, tropical weather patterns, and winds around Antarctica. In around 80 percent of the extreme sea ice loss events identified in pre-industrial model runs, ice-loss can be linked to a shift in wind patterns around Antarctica, where strong westerly winds weaken or reverse, allowing warmer air and oceanic conditions to reduce sea ice area. This highlights the important role of changing wind patterns in driving extreme sea ice losses. In addition, we plan to extend our study to past and future climate scenarios to see if extreme Antarctic sea ice loss events are becoming more frequent or intense due to human-caused climate change, helping us understand and predict future sea ice behaviour.



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