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  • Presentation | A33J: The Dynamics of Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation in Present and Future Climates: Jet Streams, Storm Tracks, Stationary Waves, and Monsoons I Poster
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  • A33J-2292: Projected Changes of the Northern Annular Mode Linked to Seasonality of the ENSO Teleconnection
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Author(s):
Takashi Kawamura, The University of Tokyo (First Author, Presenting Author)
Yu Kosaka, The University of Tokyo
Satoru Okajima, University of Tsukuba
Hisashi Nakamura, The University of Tokyo


Anomalous wintertime weather in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere is closely linked to the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which is characterized by seesaw-like air pressure anomalies between the Arctic and midlatitude ocean basins. Despite its relevance to climate risk assessment in a warming world, future changes in interannual NAM variability remain to be elaborated. Using a large-ensemble atmospheric simulation dataset of over 10,000 model years, we show that the NAM in a warmer climate accompanies a stronger Aleutian Low anomaly. This change is partly attributable to a stronger influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a leading mode of tropical Pacific climate variability. This finding suggests enhanced potential predictability of the NAM under global warming.



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