- [ONLINE] GC31G-VR8943: Improving Forest Carbon Uptake Estimates by Integrating the Direct Effects of CO2 Fertilization into MODIS Vegetation Productivity datasets over India
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Ripan Das, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay (First Author, Presenting Author)
Subhankar Karmakar, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
Subimal Ghosh, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
Terrestrial vegetation plays an important role in mitigating climate change by absorbing atmospheric CO2 during photosynthesis. Satellite observations show that green cover in Indian forests increased by 5.58% from 2001 to 2024, making them an essential part of nature-based carbon removal strategies. However, MODIS-based estimates indicate a 1.07% decline in net carbon uptake by Indian vegetation, with 50% of India’s forested regions showing negative trends, mainly due to climate stress. A key limitation of the MODIS datasets is that they do not capture the direct enhancement of photosynthesis caused by rising atmospheric CO2, known as the direct effect of CO2 fertilization (CFE). In this study, we incorporate this physiological effect and reestimate the net carbon uptake capacity of Indian forests. Our updated estimates show a 9.23% increase in net carbon uptake and a significant reduction in areas experiencing negative trends. However, forests under warming and moisture stress exhibit a weaker response to the direct effect of CFE. These findings suggest that satellite-based datasets underestimate the carbon absorption capacity of Indian forests and that factoring in the direct effect of CFE results in more accurate estimates of forest carbon uptake, thereby aiding informed decision-making for climate policies and forest management.
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