- [ONLINE] A13K-VR8782: Forecasting Hourly Electrical Load Demand: A Comparative Study of XGBoost and Bi-LSTM Models
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Saptaporna Dey, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (First Author, Presenting Author)
Atika Alam, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Sujoy Dey, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
The study investigates two predictive models, XGBoost (a machine learning method) and Bi-LSTM (a deep learning approach), for the task of predicting hourly electrical consumption. The study uses Vermont, USA, data covering the period 2015-2025, with the two models trained on electrical consumption and weather data. Their performance was assessed using error metrics such as MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and R2. The results show that Bi-LSTM comes out on top of XGBoost, with the results being more accurate, having lower error rates. Although XGBoost does okay for very short-term predictions of up to 6 hours, Bi-LSTM outperforms for short-term and longer-term predictions of up to 24 hours. The outcome implies that deep learning models, such as Bi-LSTM, are more effective in capturing complex patterns of electrical load data in time. In short, the study shows that the two models are both able to deliver; however, Bi-LSTM has a clear edge for sustainable electrical demand forecasting, thus enabling better energy planning and sustainable power production.
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