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- GC43F-0855: Diagnosing and Comparing Sources of Error in Emulators of Earth System Models (highlighted)
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Board 0855‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
Author(s):Generic 'disconnected' Message
Christopher Womack, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (First Author, Presenting Author)
Glenn Flierl, MIT
Shahine Bouabid, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Andre Souza, MIT
Paolo Giani, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences
Sebastian Eastham, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Noelle Selin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Understanding future climate risks requires a large number of projections for many different scenarios. Climate emulators allow for rapid projections without the computational costs associated with full scale climate models. However, many different types of emulators now exist, making it difficult to determine which techniques are best suited for a given task. Here, we outline a framework to compare these different techniques both theoretically and practically through a series of stress tests to pinpoint common sources of emulator error. One popular approach, response functions, consistently outperforms other techniques across all experiments. Our results help clarify which emulators are best suited for different tasks and show how future climate models can be used to support emulator design. Finally, we highlight the advantages of using physically-interpretable emulators to build confidence in emulator projections as they are incorporated into decision-making processes.
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