Sea ice albedo—how much sunlight ice reflects—plays a key role in how sea ice grows and melts, yet it’s rarely used in current forecasting systems. Most sea ice prediction methods only include a few types of data, like ice concentration and thickness, which miss important surface changes, especially in summer.

This study explores whether including albedo in sea ice forecasting could improve accuracy. Using a simplified sea ice model and simulated observations, we tested how adding albedo data affects predictions at four Arctic locations. We applied a method that keeps variables like albedo physically realistic, even when they change over time.

We found that adding albedo data improved or matched the performance of traditional methods in most regions. When we reduced uncertainty in the albedo data—closer to what future satellite missions could achieve—predictions improved across the board. This shows that better measurements of albedo could significantly benefit sea ice forecasts.

Our results suggest that albedo is a valuable but underused resource for improving Arctic sea ice predictions. They support the need for new observing strategies and better integration of albedo into forecasting systems.