Presentation | A13D: Bridging the Gap from Climate to Extreme Weather: Theory, Modeling, and Observations III Oral
Oral
A13D-02: Surprise Heatwaves: Comparing Theory- and Data-Driven Estimates of Surface Air Temperature Upper-Bounds to Identify Where and Why Historical Records May Under-Predict Future Heatwaves
Author(s): Daniel Feldman, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (First Author, Presenting Author) Mark Risser, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Stefan Rahimi, University of Wyoming William Boos, University of California Berkeley
Recently-observed heatwaves had, prior to their occurrence, been considered impossible events. However, we show that there are actually limits to heatwaves over the Conterminous United States. These limits exist because air can only be heated so much before it rises and forms clouds, thereby shutting off the heatwave. We use a theory based on this limiting mechanism to show where heatwaves can occur that would not be predicted based on historical observations alone. We also utilize both theory and observations to create estimates of the 100-year and 1000-year heatwaves to support extreme heat preparedness.
