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- A51R-0991: Most at-risk regions for surprise extremes
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Board 0991‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
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Iris de Vries, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (First Author, Presenting Author)
Erich Fischer, ETH Zurich
Luke Harrington, University of Waikato
Raphaël Huser, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Sebastian Sippel, ETH Zurich
Climate change makes extreme temperatures and extreme rainfall worse in most land regions, on average. There is, however, a lot of randomness in the local weather, which means that these average trends are sometimes not apparent in observations. It can thus be the case that some regions have not been exposed to any extreme heatwaves or rainfall in recent history, even though climate change has increased the likelihood of very extreme temperatures and rainfall. For practical information on extreme weather risks, it is thus important to take into account both the local weather history as well as the average effect of climate change. We use extreme value theory and large climate model ensembles to quantify which regions are exposed to particularly high risk of “surprise extremes” that could cause high damages, taking into account local extreme event history.
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