Understanding where people will live in the future is important for managing the risks of climate change. Population movement depends on many factors, including economics, health, agriculture, and access to resources like water and energy. This study builds a new high-resolution (1-kilometer scale) model to estimate how people might move within a country as the climate changes. The model includes eight factors such as labor productivity, energy demand, water availability, and heat-related deaths. It uses international climate scenarios to simulate how population patterns may change by the year 2100.

By zooming in to the urban level, the model helps identify which cities and regions may gain or lose population under different climate futures. For example, places like Tokyo or Bangkok may see different levels of risk depending on how the climate and economy evolve. The results can help decision-makers understand which areas may become more vulnerable or more attractive for future settlement. This research supports better planning for infrastructure, public services, and climate adaptation policies. It also helps communicate future risk in ways that are more understandable to the general public and communities.