In dryland regions, the first warning of a crisis might come from a prayer. In North Africa, governments sometimes officially call for Islamic rain prayers (Salat al-Istisqāʼ) during times of stress. These events can show when drought or political tension is pushing systems beyond their limits.

We created the first detailed dataset tracking these Rain Prayer Events (RPEs) in Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco from 2000 to 2024. Using statistical models, we studied how these prayers relate to drought (SPEI index), how much farmland is affected, and whether conflict is contributing. We found that RPEs usually happen during severe six-month droughts, and they’re more likely when drought and conflict overlap. These rituals reflect deep religious traditions and are often used when people feel that normal government tools can’t help anymore. Even though this study focuses on Islamic prayers, many cultures have similar ways of asking for rain. If we treat these rituals as social signals, they can help us understand when and where communities are reaching a breaking point. In places with few formal warning systems, these prayers could offer a powerful, culturally relevant way to spot crises early. They’re not just about needing rain, they show a society under pressure.