Mangroves offer a wide range of benefits to nearby populations. But what will these benefits look like in a future where mangroves are impacted by a climate change-driven warmer ocean and nearby populations have grown or become wealthier? This study disentangles and quantifies socioeconomic and climate impacts on global mangrove coverage using spatio-temporal statistical analysis. We project future scenarios of mangrove cover and assess how changing demographics and economies might alter the benefits mangroves provide, such as cultural, regulating and provisioning services. This research emphasizes the importance of integrating economic analysis with ecological insights to better prepare for the impacts of climate change on the benefits that nature provides to society.