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- T41A-05: Sensitivity Analysis of Subduction Zone Temperature Given Input Uncertainty and Geometry Variation Using Mesh Morphing and Reduced-Order Modeling
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NOLA CC
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Gabrielle Hobson, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego (First Author, Presenting Author)
Dave May, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego
Alice-Agnes Gabriel, University of California San Diego
The primary factor that controls the extent of earthquake rupture is the temperature near the interface between plates. When modelers use simulations to estimate temperatures, they must make choices about how to represent physics in the system, values for model inputs that describe properties of the system, and the geometry of the plate interface. This information is uncertain because the plate interface is located deep in the Earth. We present tools to measure variability in the temperature, given a varying plate interface geometry and reasonable variation in model inputs. We use mesh morphing, which takes a mesh representing one geometry and deforms it to represent a new geometry without remeshing. This enables us to use reduced‐order models, which are computationally cheaper to evaluate than full simulations. They allow us to measure the influence of varying model input parameters and geometry on temperature. We show that there is significant variability in the temperature and estimated potential extent of rupture, given variability in the input parameters.
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