Eastern Canada, with its good rainfall and fertile soils, is an important region for growing corn in North America. But in the future, climate change—including warmer temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and higher carbon dioxide levels—could make it harder to manage corn yield and increase greenhouse gas emissions

To better understand how to deal with these changes, we modelled the data collected from corn fields in Ontario and Quebec to test different drainage systems (free vs. controlled drainage) and amounts of nitrogen fertilizer, under various future climate scenarios.

Our findings show that warmer temperatures could actually help boost corn yields by reducing the risk of cold weather during important growth stages. N₂O emissions may also go down because plants use nitrogen more efficiently in warmer conditions. However, by the middle of the century, higher nitrogen use might be needed to keep up with the increased crop growth under warmer climates. Controlled drainage didn’t do much to improve yields or reduce N₂O emissions, but it was very helpful in preventing nitrate pollution in water.

Overall, with smart fertilizer use and careful water management, corn farming in eastern Canada could adapt well to climate change while protecting the environment.