- A32B-07: Reconciling Regional Carbon Budgets in Europe Using Δ14CO2-Constrained Inversions
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Carlos Gómez-Ortiz, Lund University (First Author, Presenting Author)
Yohanna Villalobos, Lund University
Ute Karstens, Lund University
Guillaume Monteil, Barcelona Supercomputing Center
Marko Scholze, Lund University
Understanding how much carbon dioxide (CO2) comes from burning fossil fuels is important for tackling climate change and checking whether countries are meeting their climate goals. In this study, we looked at fossil fuel CO2 emissions in Europe for the year 2021. We compared two ways of estimating these emissions: one based on ground-based air measurements and another based on national reports and energy use. We used data from a European network of air monitoring stations, including a special type of CO2 that helps us tell apart fossil fuel emissions from natural sources like forests. Our results showed that actual fossil fuel emissions were likely lower than some of the estimates reported by countries or used in official models. We also found that if models assume fossil fuel emissions stay constant, they may give incorrect results, sometimes off by as much as 20%. Our work shows that measuring different types of CO2 in the air can give a clearer picture of where emissions come from. This helps improve how we track progress on reducing emissions and points to the need for better monitoring in parts of Europe where data is still missing.
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