- GC43N-0962: Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling of Wind and SST Using CNNs for Future Projections of Marine Heatwaves in the Peruvian Upwelling System
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Board 0962‚ Hall EFG (Poster Hall)NOLA CC
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Adolfo Chamorro, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (First Author, Presenting Author)
Jorge Tam, Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE)
Rodrigo Mogollon Aburto, Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE)
Francois Colas, LOPS, IRD/CNRS/Université Bretagne Occidentale/IFREMER, IUEM
Vincent Echevin, LOCEAN-IPSL, IRD/CNRS/Sorbonne Universités (UPMC)/MNHN, UMR 7159
Sophie Giffard-Roisin, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, IRD, Univ. Gustave Eiffel, ISTerre
Helmuth Villavicencio, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería, Perú
Nelson Jorge, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería, Perú
Victor Ccori, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia
Marine heatwaves are periods of unusually warm ocean temperatures that can harm fish, ecosystems, and people who depend on the ocean. In recent years, these events have become more frequent and intense, especially along the coast of Peru, one of the richest fishing areas in the world. However, most global climate models cannot represent important local features, like coastal winds and sea temperaturas, because they work at very large scales. In this study, we combine two techniques, machine learning and ocean modeling, to improve climate projections at regional scales. First, we use artificial intelligence (specifically, convolutional neural networks) to improve the resolution of wind data from global models. Then, we use those winds to run a high-resolution ocean model, which gives more detailed sea surface temperatures. These results are then used to train a second machine learning model to expand the analysis to more climate models. This hybrid approach helps us better understand how marine heatwaves could change in the future. The information can support coastal communities and fisheries by helping them prepare for and adapt to changing ocean conditions.
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